Regime Gambles with Gas Prices in a Society that Longs for a Spark to Explode

iran-fuel-station
Written by
Mahmoud Hakamian

New reports from inside Iran reveal a surge of unrest at numerous gas and fuel stations. As tensions tend to lead to protests against the surge in gasoline prices, security entities have taken to sending menacing text messages to citizens’ mobile phones, demanding that they disperse from these gatherings or they will face “legal consequences”.

Over the past few months, the debate surrounding gasoline price hikes has emerged as a significant concern within the media and among various government figures. Despite the presentation and subsequent denial of different proposals related to card usage, subsidies, and rationing, state officials continue to offer justifications, often citing reasons such as combating smuggling or addressing technical intricacies that indicate a gas price increase.

In a report released on August 13, Tasnim News Agency quoted Ali Akbar Nejadali, the CEO of the National Oil Products Distribution Company, who claimed to counter rumors about the closure of certain fuel stations and the potential increase in fuel costs.

Nejadali said, “As stipulated in Clause H, Note 14 of the 2023 budget law, the Ministry of Oil, through the National Oil Products Distribution Company of Iran, has the obligation to implement strategies aimed at enhancing the distribution of gasoline and oil across the nation, with a simultaneous focus on reducing fuel smuggling. By the end of September, a concerted effort is underway to encourage at least 90% of gasoline-powered vehicles and 95% of oil-gas vehicles to exclusively use designated fuel cards.”

Meanwhile, on August 12, Mostafa Reza Hosseini Qotbabad, a member of the parliament, revealed the government’s strategy behind raising gasoline prices.

In an interview with the state-affiliated website Shafaqna, Hosseini stated, “Every day, we experiment and make trial and error, as if the people have become laboratory mice; one day we witness different decisions in the realm of cars and vehicles, and the next day in the domain of fuel and essential commodities.”

The member of the parliament’s Industries Commission added, “My belief is that the trial and error have been aimed at preparing the society for a gasoline price increase. Just as we have witnessed in the past, they are assessing the situation within the society to apply their policies. Therefore, in my view, the possibility of a gasoline price increase exists.”

The state-run website “Arsh-e Online” also wrote on August 13, “Despite repeated denials of changes in gasoline prices and rationing, it seems that the government’s decision regarding the collection of fuel cards is now definitive.”

Though, the government of Ebrahim Raisi remains dismissive.

On July 16, Ahmad Vahidi, the Minister of Interior, rejected reports about an increase in gasoline prices as mere rumors and stated that the government has no plans to raise gasoline prices. He also ruled out a plan for a so-called “Three-tier Pricing of Gasoline” and emphasized that such programs are baseless.

Media outlets, particularly since April 2023, have repeatedly published reports covering the “inconsistency between gasoline production and consumption in Iran,” the “low gasoline prices in Iran compared to certain countries,” and the “import of fuel from Russia at a higher price than the global average to address gasoline shortages.” These reports seem to be aimed at preventing a potential social shock in case of a gasoline price increase by the Raisi government.

In November 2019, after months of debate over whether to increase fuel prices, the government of Hassan Rouhani abruptly tripled gasoline prices on a weekend night. This announcement acted as a spark igniting the accumulated anger within oppressed masses and led to an explosion. Within a few days, thousands of vehicles and government buildings were set on fire across the country, and the regime struggled to control the crisis only through extensive crackdowns and the killing of at least than 1,500 protesters.

Although, as stated by Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Iranian regime, the decision to raise gasoline prices was made collectively by all heads of the three branches of power, after the nationwide uprising, many conflicting factions pointed fingers and blamed one another for the decision.

In a column that intended to defend Ebrahim Raisi government’s record, the newspaper Kayhan, whose editorial guidelines are dictated by the Supreme Leader’s office, wrote in an article on August 7, “When (Hassan Rouhani) saw that he was losing control, he increased the gasoline prices to provoke a reaction from society; to increase pressure from below to leverage bargain capacity in dealing with those on top. It is said that the Minister of Intelligence warned in a cabinet meeting that if you raise gasoline prices, society will collapse, and Rouhani laughed.”

No matter the blame game, the regime is facing a series of serious challenges when it comes to gasoline prices. On one hand, the increase in gasoline prices leads to the inflation of other commodities and triggers widespread social and security unrest. On the other hand, it is low on cash.

Despite the living memory of the 2019 uprising, the theocracy is now having a hard time pursuing ambitious projects that it deems vital for its survival, like nuclear, ballistic missile, and regional expansion programs. Its terrorist and extremist policies have resulted in worldwide isolation, and the consequent sanctions have significantly reduced its budget for maintaining its vast security apparatus afoot. They are the ones that Khamenei desperately needs to quell the inevitable revolution.

The current ruling establishment, which spans from the highest levels of the government down to local authorities, is tasked with advancing this precarious agenda. They have explicitly been chosen because of their complicity in four decades of crime against the Iranian nation. Most of the officials are designated and sanctioned by international bodies.

Hence, the most pressing question for the rulers is whether a society that has endured 44 years of oppression, censorship, and deprivation of all political, social, and even economic rights will absorb yet another economic shock or will it explode.

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