As November 2019 Uprising Anniversary Nears, Iran’s Regime Lacks Regional Escape Route Amid Brewing Unrest

iran-protests-2019-motorbike-burned

A motorcycle is burned down during 2019 uprisings in Iran

Written by
Mehdi Oghbai

As Iran approaches the fifth anniversary of the November 2019 protests, the country finds itself gripped by a severe socio-economic crisis, intensified by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s risky regional strategy. Following the 2022 nationwide uprising, Khamenei reportedly initiated a regional war, aiming to deflect rising domestic grievances. Yet, a year later, facing high casualties among his proxy forces and a declining economy, Khamenei’s approach has left the regime vulnerable, its defenses strained both at home and abroad.

The current economic challenges have reignited concerns about protests similar to those in 2019 and 2022. Hossein Raghfar, an economist at Al-Zahra University, recently told Jamaran News, “We face the risk of protests like November 2019 and Fall 2022. The events of November 2019 were a cumulative eruption of grievances and humiliations across Iran’s youth.” These remarks underscore the escalating frustrations amid severe economic strain, including rising prices, cuts to essential services, and widespread dissatisfaction.

In a significant move on November 12, Masoud Pezeshkian’s government announced that licensed entities could import high-grade gasoline at unsubsidized prices, a decision that analysts believe may soon drive further hikes in fuel costs. While government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani claimed the imports were “separate from the subsidized fuel distribution infrastructure,” she acknowledged severe mismatches in energy supply. “The administration is committed to public health, reducing fuel oil consumption despite power outages, and addressing this imbalance,” Mohajerani said. Observers note that the government’s piecemeal announcements reflect an attempt to avoid a repeat of the 2019 uprising, sparked by a sudden gasoline price increase that spurred mass protests across the country.

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Iran: 2019 Uprising, FACT SHEET: Officials Involved in Suppression of 2019 #Iran Protests#WeStand4FreeIranhttps://t.co/Ewq33ajoUf pic.twitter.com/p2XmZn6s6O

— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) November 1, 2020

In another recent statement, the Iranian regime’s president Massoud Pezeshkian commented on the untenable nature of subsidizing fuel. “It is unreasonable for the government to import gasoline at the free-market dollar rate and sell it at subsidized prices,” Pezeshkian stated, adding that the policy goes against expert recommendations. “A government unable to fund medicine, wheat, and pensions cannot afford to buy gasoline at 50,000 rials and sell it for 10,000.”

Iran’s growing list of crises now encompasses systematic corruption, political repression, environmental degradation, rampant inflation, and the dominance of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in nearly all sectors of the economy. Additional grievances include a brain drain, a plummeting currency, devastating air and water pollution, deforestation, and widespread food and medical shortages. For many Iranians, the list has grown long, with many referring to these grievances as “80 million reasons” for change.

On the international front, tensions continue to rise following Germany’s recent decision to close all Iranian consulates in response to Iran’s execution of Jamshid Sharmahd, a German-Iranian dual national. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced that while the Iranian embassy would remain open, diplomatic relations had deteriorated sharply, and she urged the EU to add the IRGC to its list of terrorist organizations. This move comes as Iran’s internal repression and human rights abuses draw greater scrutiny worldwide, with Germany’s move seen as an indicator of mounting European disapproval.

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The November 2019 uprising is clear evidence of this progress, especially considering that it sprang up on a national scale less than two years after a previous uprising that brought public support for regime change out into the open.https://t.co/A03I4c6mrW

— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 24, 2020

Adding to the regime’s woes, Iran’s currency hit a record low following the recent U.S. presidential election victory of Donald Trump. The IRGC’s Telegram channel quickly posted a video threatening Trump’s life, reigniting fears of U.S. backlash. The threat reflects a deep-seated resentment stemming from Trump’s authorization of the 2019 killing of IRGC General Qassem Soleimani. The clerical regime is reportedly terrified of the potential reinstatement of the new U.S. administration’s “maximum pressure” policy, which could significantly worsen Iran’s economic turmoil and pave the way for more unrest.

Internally, Iranian officials have reportedly intensified efforts to prepare for Khamenei’s eventual succession, fearing that his death could trigger nationwide efforts to overthrow the regime. Speculation has intensified around Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, as the likely successor, a move seen as a consolidation of power within the supreme leader’s inner circle. Mojtaba Khamenei’s increased visibility suggests that the regime is moving to secure his position, with Abbas Palizdar, an influential figure, describing him as “well-equipped to implement necessary reforms.”

Despite such efforts, Khamenei and his administration appear aware of the fragility of their position. The regime’s attempts to soften the blow of economic policies through rumor and staged announcements, such as with fuel pricing, reveal lessons learned from the backlash in 2019. The government has continually tested the public’s response before implementing price hikes or cuts to avoid widespread unrest. But as Raghfar and other analysts have warned, these measures may no longer be enough.

With escalating pressures on both the international and domestic fronts, Khamenei now faces limited options and a restless population. The sentiment in the streets echoes a growing defiance, with chants of “Fight and we will fight back” reverberating across the nation. Viewing its investment in Western appeasement policy slipping away, and with its proxy forces and regional strategy severely weakened, Khamenei finds himself confronting a younger generation—angrier, more resilient, and led by the PMOI-led Resistance Units—poised to make this a defining moment for Iran.