Leaked Documents Expose Iranian Regime’s Exploitation of Ukraine Crisis for Strategic Gain
iran ukraine war analysis (1)
Written by
Shahriar Kia
The very fact that the terrorist regime in Iran survives and thrives from war and destruction, has once again been proved by documents that have been leaked among the trove of evidence acquired by Iranian dissidents.
As servers of the Presidential Organization were taken over by the “GhyamSarnegouni” group, a booklet was obtained with the title “The crisis in Ukraine and its consequences on the foreign relations of the Islamic Republic of Iran- Ambassadors Seminar – April and May 2023”.
The text provides in-depth insight into the regime’s strategic calculations and how it makes sure to exploit the most from an international disaster that has killed thousands of innocent people, ruined dozens of cities, and even affected the global economy.
The writing exposes the Iranian regime’s foreign conspiracies that aim to exploit the destructive war in Ukraine and leverage its complicity in acquiring concessions from the European countries. The document reveals that the regime is counting on the Western appeasement policy to render the international sanctions ineffective.
Using the eco-political challenges in Europe, the regime’s diplomatic apparatus wants to divide European countries and create a safe zone in its own favor. The report also highlights plans to defame and demonize Ukrainian leaders to deprive them of vital European support.
The document shows that despite actively aiding Russia to bomb and destroy Ukrainian cities, the regime wants to avoid severing ties with Kyiv in order to minimize international isolation. The report states that Tehran’s tactic of buying time through lengthy negotiations with Ukrainian officials has led to some level of easing tensions with the EU.
The document and its translation follow:
The crisis in Ukraine and its consequences on the foreign relations of the Islamic Republic of Iran
Ambassadors Seminar – April and May 2023
In the name of Allah, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful.
We categorically and explicitly reject any involvement in the war in Ukraine, and such claims are completely baseless. The war in Ukraine was instigated by the United States to expand NATO to the East. Currently, while the people of Ukraine are suffering and facing difficulties, the greatest benefit from this war is being obtained by the United States and its arms factories, and for this reason, they obstruct the necessary measures to end the war.
– Supreme Leader, March 21, 2023
1) Latest updates on the war in Ukraine:
The Russian army’s full-fledged attack on Ukraine began on 24 February 2022, despite Moscow’s repeated warnings to the United States and NATO and Kremlin’s requests for the West to consider its security concerns, which were completely ignored in the months leading up to this attack. Two days before that, Moscow had recognized the independence of the republics of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.
However, the war that was initially thought to end within a few days or weeks with the fall of the Ukrainian government and the occupation of Kyiv has continued for over 14 months, with no short-term prospects for its conclusion. Despite Russia’s initial success, especially the siege of Kyiv (the capital) and Kharkiv (the second-largest city in Ukraine), gradually, Russia lost the initiative on the battlefield due to the expansion of NATO’s military support for Ukraine. Many of the occupied areas were handed back to Ukrainian forces. The lack of precise military planning and weak support for the executing forces prevented Russia from achieving the desired outcome. However, over the past five months, despite heavy clashes in some eastern regions of Ukraine, the war has remained at a stalemate, and neither side has been able to achieve success in the field.
The most significant development in the coming weeks of the war is Ukraine’s counterattack against Russia, which will be carried out with the coordination and military and intelligence guidance of the United States.
It is predicted that approximately 60,000 Ukrainian forces, 250 tanks, and 350 armored vehicles will be used in this counterattack. It’s been said that Ukraine intends to [text missing in original document]
Some of the key characteristics of the war in Ukraine are as follows:
Occupied areas under Russian control: The Crimean Peninsula, the Luhansk province, and parts of the Donetsk province, Zaporizhia, and Kherson province, accounting for approximately 15% of Ukraine’s territory.
Total Western aid to Ukraine: Over $156 billion in military, economic, and humanitarian aid has been committed to Ukraine, with $71 billion committed by the United States, $62 billion by Europe, and $23 billion allocated to the commitments of other countries worldwide.
Casualties of the Russian army: Over 200,000 individuals, with an estimated 40,000 to 60,000 fatalities. [foot note: According to a leaked confidential report from the US Department of Defense in mid-March, the casualties of the Russian army were estimated at only 17,000 and the casualties of Ukraine were estimated at around 70,000 by the end of the first year of the war. However, American analysts claim that these numbers have been manipulated by Russian hackers.]
Casualties of the Ukrainian army: Over 100,000 individuals were killed and injured.
Since August 2022, Russia has conducted at least 15 major missile attacks against Ukrainian military and urban infrastructure, using over 1,200 missiles, resulting in approximately 40% of Ukraine’s energy facilities suffering serious damage.
The main sanctions against Russia include the seizure of $320 billion in assets of the Russian Central Bank, the cutoff of most Russian banks’ access to SWIFT, the closure of Western airspace and maritime borders to Russian ships and aircraft, the seizure of assets belonging to Russian individuals and political figures amounting to approximately $100 billion, and the withdrawal of major oil, industrial, and automotive companies from Russia.
In October 2022, during a referendum held in the occupied territories and based on its results, Russia annexed four occupied provinces.
On February 24, China presented its 12-point peace plan to halt the war in Ukraine.
The plan faced cautious reactions from Ukraine and received support from Russia. Most Western countries have deemed this plan incomplete and serving Russian interests.
On December 26th, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin. The court charged Putin with “committing war crimes by forcibly sending Ukrainian children to Russia.”
The World Bank estimates that Ukraine will require at least $411 billion for reconstruction in the next 10 years. So far, 2 million residential units have been destroyed in this war, and one-fifth of healthcare centers have been damaged.
2) The Ukraine-Russia conflict and bilateral relations between Iran and Ukraine:
The Russia-Ukraine war has had significant global implications, affecting the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The conflict has also altered the dynamics of Iran’s relations, particularly in terms of defense and security, with both Russia and Ukraine. Iran’s relations with Ukraine, on the one hand, and with Western countries, especially the European Union, on the other hand, have come under intense scrutiny.
The Impact of this conflict on Iran’s foreign relations has gained momentum since August 2022, coinciding with reports of Iran sending military drones to Russia for the attack on Ukraine. The Ukrainian government, under the pretext of Russia’s use of Iranian drones, initiated a process of reducing bilateral relations starting in
2-1) The process of destructive actions and statements of the Ukrainian parties in bilateral relations:
– On September 23, 2022, Ukraine reduced the level of relations by canceling the credentials of the Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Iran and reducing the number of Iranian diplomatic personnel in Kyiv to two, effective from September 26, 2022.
– On October 19, 2022, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister conveyed a message stating Ukraine’s intention to cut relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran if evidence of Iranian military assistance to Russia is proven.
– On November 8, 2022, a statement was approved in the Ukrainian Parliament condemning what was referred to as Iran’s support for armed aggression against Ukraine. (A response was issued to the statement through a note.)
– The process of canceling and suspending government cooperation agreements between Iran and Ukraine began in November 2022. (Five agreements in the fields of banking, judiciary, studies, and standards have been canceled.)
– The Ukrainian President’s statements to the US Congress on December 22, 2022: “Russia has found an ally in its genocide policy: Iran. Iran has sent hundreds of lethal drones to Russia, posing a threat to our key infrastructure. Hereby, a terrorist has found another (terrorist). If we don’t stop them now, they will attack your allies in the future.” (A response was issued to the statement through a note.)
– On February 2, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister announced that the decision to cut diplomatic relations with Iran could be taken at any time due to Tehran’s current behavior.
– On March 3, the Prime Minister of Ukraine stated:
Iran is an accomplice to the crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine and must be held accountable because it has provided weapons, equipment, and drones to Russia that have been used to destroy civilian infrastructure and kill civilians.
When a court is established to address these crimes, Iran, Russia, and their military leaders must be held accountable and accept the political responsibility for the killings that have been carried out by Iranian-made weapons.
– On March 30, Ukraine imposed sanctions on several more Iranian companies and individuals.
– On March 25, the Special Representative of the Ukrainian President for Middle Eastern Affairs stated:
Ukraine is willing to maintain normal relations with Iran, but for that to happen, Tehran must cease the transfer of weapons to Russia or at least condemn Russia’s use of its drones against Ukraine. Ukraine has declared a categorical refusal to accept the sending of Iranian drones to Russia at all levels.
2-2) Actions taken:
So far, there have been six rounds of telephone conversations between the foreign ministers of the two countries. The latest telephone conversation between the foreign ministers took place on October 28, 2022.
Despite follow-ups, the Ukrainian side did not agree to the seventh conversation.
On November 14, 2022, bilateral expert-level negotiations between Iran and Ukraine were held in Oman.
On March 18, the President of Ukraine announced sanctions against 141 Russian entities. These sanctions include asset freezes, business restrictions, suspension of economic and financial commitments, and a ban on technology transfer to them.
The important point is that the quality of immediate military cooperation between Iran and Russia will play a significant role in the future of Iran-Ukraine bilateral relations. If the military interaction between Iran and Russia goes beyond the current levels and enters the realm of strategic weapons, the possibility of Ukraine cutting ties with the Islamic Republic of Iran is not far-fetched.
However, the pursuit of diplomatic initiatives by the Islamic Republic of Iran to manage relations with Ukraine is essential. Any constructive engagement with the Ukrainian side can also minimize the negative repercussions of the Ukraine conflict on Iran’s relations with the European Union. In order to achieve this, necessary cooperation and coordination among all relevant entities should take place under the umbrella of the Supreme National Security Council.
Furthermore, it is advisable to establish an embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Moldova as a precautionary measure in anticipation of a potential severance of Ukraine’s relations with Iran.
3) The Ukraine Conflict and Iran-EU Relations
The Western governments’ allegations regarding Iran’s military support and the transfer of drones to Russia for use in the Ukrainian war have become one of the latest challenges in the relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Europe, leading to increased pressure from European governments against Iran.
Although the Islamic Republic of Iran’s initiative for bilateral negotiations with Ukraine has somewhat reduced the criticism and heavy media coverage against our country, from the perspective of Ukraine and the European Union, Iran is still seen as one of the suppliers of weapons to Russia in the Ukrainian war and one of the parties to the conflict. In this regard, our country’s interactions should be taken into account.
From this perspective, our country’s interactions have been effective and have even affected the negotiations to revive the JCPOA. Given the importance of the issue and the need for necessary measures, it is necessary to examine Europe’s approach to Iran’s relationship with the Ukraine conflict and how to interact with Europe in this regard.
3-1) Europe’s View on the Ukraine Conflict and the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Relationship with it
The Ukraine conflict has posed a serious challenge to Europe’s 80-year-old security-based structure established following World War II.
Europe is certain about the delivery of the UAV from Iran to Russia and denial of the claims by the Islamic Republic of Iran has not been heard by Europe.
From Europe’s perspective, Iran is directly targeting Europe’s security interests by supporting Russia in the war. Europe emphasizes that sending drones to Russia was a strategic mistake.
Europe claims that Russia is using Iranian drones to target civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, resulting in war crimes.
Europe considers the military assistance to Russia as a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 and does not see it in line with Iran’s policy of neutrality.
Europe also demands that Iran refrain from taking further steps and stop sending ballistic missiles to Russia, as it would irreversibly escalate tensions and severely worsen Iran’s relations with Europe.
3-2) What is Europe seeking?
It seems that Europe’s (the West) objective in exaggerating Iran’s role in the Ukraine conflict goes beyond deterring Iran from supporting Russia. The main goal is likely to deter Russia from forming a coalition against the West.
The West seeks to deter countries like China and India, as well as Russia-influenced countries like Belarus and Kazakhstan, from cooperating with Russia by highlighting the drone issue and imposing costs on Iran.
3-3) Interacting with Europe Regarding the Ukraine Conflict
Given the threats arising from Europe’s accusations against Iran regarding the Ukraine conflict, especially the potential impact on the nuclear agreement and the legal pursuit of Iranian citizens for alleged involvement in Russian war crimes in Ukraine, it is necessary to devise a strategy to exit the current situation in relations with the European Union. The preface to this issue is an evaluation of the consequences of our country’s interaction with Europe in this regard, which is referred to as follows:
3-3-1) Potential Positive Effects:
Seeking to prevent the Ukraine conflict from affecting other important issues for the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the nuclear dossier.
Mitigation of tensions in the relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the European Union.
Avoiding legal consequences of the Ukraine conflict on the Iranian government and citizens of the Islamic Republic of Iran, under the pretext of supporting and participating in Russian war crimes.
Avoiding isolation of the Islamic Republic of Iran on the international stage.
Halting the process of Western sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran under the pretext of the Ukraine conflict.
Prevention of diplomatic relations between Ukraine and Iran from being severed.
3-3-2) Negative Consequences:
Serious concern and dissatisfaction from Russia regarding Iran’s interactions with Europe may lead to overt and covert reactions.
Decreased trust from close friends and allies of the Islamic Republic of Iran due to perceived change in Iran’s strategy towards the Ukraine conflict.
The possibility of these negotiations becoming new leverage of pressure from Europe against the Islamic Republic to concede on its non-negotiation strategy regarding regional issues involving missiles.
Given the factors mentioned above, it is crucial to assess whether the positive outcomes of engaging with Europe in the Ukraine conflict will outweigh the negative repercussions on the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In any case, if interacting with Europe is to be considered
3-4) The following tactics are recommended to be included in the agenda:
Warn the European party to refrain from pushing Iran towards Russia. Implicitly, the European party should be told that in circumstances where the West has imposed costs on Iran under the pretext of Iran’s involvement [in the Ukraine war], this could pave the way for encouraging Iran to pursue economic interests by siding with Russia.
Explore the possibility of using the capacities of Iran’s close cooperation with Russia as a leverage tool in negotiating with the European party. It may be necessary to address a range of topics, including Ukraine, human rights, and the nuclear dossier, as a comprehensive package.
Note: This tactic may have fewer supporters among relevant domestic institutions.
Increasing liaison and interaction with Eastern European countries and important neighbors of Ukraine, especially Poland, and Hungary.
In negotiations with European parties, it is necessary to show that Ukraine’s motivation for exaggerating Iran’s role is unrealistic. The concept should be conveyed that Ukraine highlights the issue of sending drones to attract more assistance.
It should also be clearly mentioned that during the Iran-Iraq war, Europe, despite being aware of Iraq being the invading party, provided extensive military support to Iraq. Europeans may have forgotten, but we have not forgotten the Mirage planes and the Super Étendard missiles from France. We have not forgotten Germany’s supply of chemical weapons to Iraq.
Europeans claim to have received information from Ukraine that proves Iran’s involvement in the war. However, in response to requests for providing documents and evidence from the Iranian side, they state that they have no documents to present. This contradiction in Europe’s discourse is noteworthy.