Appeasement’s Peril: West and Tehran Teeter on the Brink of Military Escalation

iran battle ship explosion (AI generated)
Written by
Mahmoud Hakamian

On the first day of 2024, the Iranian regime deployed its warship, the Alborz, to the Red Sea on Monday, following a new surge in attacks on commercial shipping by the Iran-backed Yemeni rebel group known as the Houthis. Several Western governments have made it clear that they hold the regime responsible for the actions recently taken by its proxies, but Tehran denies any involvement in the attacks, which have compelled several shipping companies to avoid the Red Sea altogether, opting for much longer and more costly routes that go around the Horn of Africa.

The arrival of the Alborz casts fresh doubt upon those denials, insofar as it is intended to discourage the United States and its allies from responding to the Houthi provocations. The US has been operating additional naval assets in the region since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict, and these have been wildly successful at intercepting missiles and drones.

On Sunday, the Yemeni militants used four boats in an attempt to seize a Singapore-flagged and Dutch-owned vessel, the Maersk Hangzhou, which was also struck by a missile. Two American helicopters responded to the ship’s calls for help and, after being fired on by the Houthi, sank three of their boats and killed at least ten crew members. The fourth boat reportedly fled the scene.

This marked at least the 23rd Houthi attack on commercial shipping since November 19. Other attacks have targeted the US Navy directly, but have been even less successful. The Houthi have also fired drones and missiles across the length of the Red Sea, targeting Israel directly, only for these to be intercepted along the way by the military assets in the waterway, or just short of their destination by Israel’s own Iron Dome missile defense system.

However, this approach has not been without its drawbacks. As reported by Politico, U.S. Navy destroyers have intercepted and shot down 38 drones and multiple missiles in the Red Sea over the past two months. The expense of deploying costly naval missiles, which can reach up to $2.1 million per shot, to counter relatively unsophisticated Houthi drones, estimated at a few thousand dollars each, is becoming a growing concern, as expressed by three other officials from the Department of Defense.

 

The latest incident closely coincided with a new wave of attacks on American assets in the nearby countries of Iraq and Syria. An Iran-backed group called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for several recent drone and rocket launches, only to face fresh retaliation from the US, leading to a typically disproportionate outcome. At least six militants were killed overnight Saturday at three sites in eastern Syria, just hours after they attempted to harm American military advisors in Erbil, Iraq.

In Iraq and Syria since mid-October, there have been more than 100 such attempted attacks, perpetrated by several different militant groups, virtually all of which have links to Iran. No fatalities have been reported as a result of these attempts, and most have cost only modest to moderate injuries and damage. However, the latest escalation comes after one US service member was critically injured, also in Erbil, just around Christmas Day.

Of the six known fatalities from the latest round of American strikes, four are said to have belonged to Hezbollah. The presence of this Lebanese proxy for the Iranian regime is yet further evidence of Tehran’s coordinating role.

Being burdened with electoral concerns, economic challenges, and domestic issues, the West has no appetite for a major conflict in the Middle East. However, the determining factor in this situation is not what the West desires, but rather the actions that Tehran decides to take.

 

The Iranian regime’s Supreme Leader has embarked on an adventurous regional warfare strategy to deflect unsolvable domestic problems. With a Middle East strategy that has proven unsuccessful, Khamenei faces the challenge of addressing an explosive society, a disgruntled elite, and a security apparatus with low morale. Consequently, the Supreme Leader sees no alternative but to escalate the conflict, hoping that the West will capitulate to prevent an all-out war.

Hence, the imperative shift to alter the trajectory of these undesired events involves adopting a new policy. It is essential to convey to Tehran that pressure will be applied not where it appears strong but where it is most vulnerable.

To prevent another major conflict in the Middle East, the West must abandon the counterproductive appeasement policy that has empowered and emboldened Tehran. Instead, due acknowledgment should be given to the people of Iran and their organized Resistance, respecting their ongoing struggle for change.

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