Donald Trump

NCRI Staff

NCRI - From Donald Trump’s rhetoric on Iran it seems as if the US has decided on this stance in order to confront the Iranian Regime over strategic disagreements.

The biggest point of contention is the role of Iran in the Middle East.

As we have seen in recent months and years, the Iranian Regime has been meddling in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen to the detriment of the people of those countries and US interests in the Middle East. Through its interference, Iranian influence has affected regional discourse and crossed several red lines drawn by the US and its allies.

In response, the US has four policy options that it could take: economic sanctions, developing counterbalancing regional frameworks, encouraging regime change from within, and direct military action.

As always with the Trump administration, everything is still on the table and no choice made so far, so let’s look at how those four options might play out.

Sanctions

This will drain the money that the Regime will use for the military, but likely to be met with strong opposition from US allies in Europe and Asia.

Counterbalancing Regional Frameworks

This is likely to be problematic as coherent and effective opposition to Iran in the Middle East is hard to come by and would probably pull the US deeper into the region.

Direct Military Action

Even though the US military far outstrips the Iranian army, it could easily spark a regional conflict with Iran attacking US bases and interests across the Middle East and Europe, if their statements about their ballistic missiles are to be believed. The missiles could be launched from any of their proxy terrorist groups across the Middle East.

Encouraging Regime Change From Within

The US has already made it clear that they stand with the Iranian people who have been protesting since late December and calling for regime-change. This is the only way that the US will effectively be able to tackle Iran, by capitalising on the fever for regime change that has taken over the country.

Vocal support for the Iranian people and their fight for freedom is a good start, but it can be improved by working with Iran’s government in exile, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). The US can also help tip the scales in the people’s favour by increasing sanctions and using targeted military action against Iram.

Sabahat Khan, a senior analyst at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA), wrote: “It is within this context that the recent protests in Iran, which Tehran accused the United States, the United Kingdom of fomenting, represent a particularly welcome development for the United States because they illustrate that Iran is vulnerable and that regime change is once again a viable American policy option.”