khamenie -rouhani

NCRI - While the Iranian regime is threatened by extremely serious crises coming from every side, regime leader Ali Khamenei and its president Hassan Rouhani are both making generalized comments over regime’s roadmap to deal with the crises, thus trying to evade putting forward a specific solution.

Since the regime is afflicted with crises at regional, international, and domestic levels, anyone or any current whose interests are tied to regime’s remaining in power, has naturally started struggling, desperately hoping to save the regime.

“I have no hope for the 12th government”, says a regime expert, adding “I believe that as long as we have an infected economy which is widely influenced by capital, it won’t be significantly affected by anyone. An efficient cabinet is the one with a strategy and plan, the terms governments in Iran have nothing to do with.” (Fararu state website, July 31, 2017)

But let’s see what solutions regime’s experts suggest so it can get out of the crises:

1. The first group suggests that if the regime is going to get closer to Europe out of its fear for the United States, then it’ll need to respect their human rights concerns. “If Iran succeeds to gain support of other countries, Europeans in particular, within the framework of the nuclear deal, it will then be able to efficiently deal with Trump’s unturned policies. This will require Iran, however, to respect in its bilateral relations with European countries their concerns over such issues as human rights, trying to address such concerns through continued constructive political talks”, says Ali Khoram, regime’s former Ambassador to UN’s European headquarter.

2. The second group believes that regime’s interventions in other countries have brought nothing but additional costs and loss and therefore the regime needs to pull back from those areas. In short, they’re suggesting the regime to accede to regional concessions, like it did by signing the nuclear deal. “The policy of expanding regime’s circles of influence over the past few years has brought nothing advantageous for our country. So, maybe it would be better if we change some of our approaches, turning our military and security circles of influence into economic ones”, says Ali Bigdeli, a figure close to Rouhani.

3. The third group is suggesting the regime to improve its relations with countries in the region, Saudi Arabia in particular. “Trump is advancing his policy of isolating Tehran through strengthening treaties with US regional allies. To neutralize this policy, our diplomacy needs to adopt a strategy aimed at reducing regional hostilities and improving relations with Persian Gulf states”, says Hassan Beheshtipour, also a figure close to Rouhani. In other words, he’s also suggesting the regime to back down on its regional ambitions.

4. The fourth group suggests the regime to get closer to European countries and develop bilateral talks with each one of them in order to neutralize US pressures. “Launching bilateral talks with Western (European) countries would be too significant for lifting the sanctions”, says Feraydoon Majlesi, former regime’s MP and close to Rouhani.

5. There’s still another group, close to Khamenei, who are suggesting the regime to become ever more powerful, practically meaning that the regime should go on with developing and testing more ballistic missiles and squandering even more in Syria, Iraq, and other regional countries. “We have to consider the fact that politics has a power-oriented identity, meaning that only more powerful countries can fulfill their values”, says Mehdi Motaharnia, regime’s international affairs expert and close to Khamenei’s band.

The intersection of plans suggested by Rouhani’s band is to follow the nuclear deal model, a viewpoint also supported by Rouhani himself.

The reality, however, is that the nuclear deal chapter is over, as the nuclear deal was based on a give-and-take, or as Rouhani put it, a win-win approach; in return for dismantling its nuclear program, regime was awarded with, for instance, preserving its 3.8 percent uranium enrichment activities as well as lifting of sanctions. Now, however, this is a one way road.

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson says Iran must withdraw its forces from Syria and other countries in the region! And it must respect human rights standards without receiving any concessions in return. The experts who raise such solutions are actually suggesting regime’s unconditional withdrawal, as they know quite well that the nuclear deal and its model belongs to a passed political chapter, with those conditions and balance of power never going to be repeated again.

If those who put forward such solutions had adequate executive authority and could advance their plans, it could then be discussed how much chances of success each solution has, while aside from lacking executive support, such solutions could question regime’s very existence once implemented. Suppose, for instance, that regime decides to respect Western, European human rights standards. Is it possible for such a regime to last even a single day without execution and repression? Replacing the executioner ‘Pourmohammadi’ with yet another one ‘Avayee’ as regime’s Justice Minister gives a clear ‘NO’ to this question.

Likewise, regime’s withdrawal from Syria and Iraq, before being kicked out of those countries, will lead to regime’s collapse, a fact also acknowledged by regime leaders. Khamenei and Revolutionary Guards’ commanders have repeatedly stated that “if we stop fighting in Syria today, tomorrow we’ll have to fight on the streets of Tehran and Iran’s other cities!”

So, regime’s acceding to these demands and plans, will lead to something to which Khamenei referred in his March-2016 speech in Mashhad as ‘endless degradation’, maintaining that the degradation won’t stop until the regime collapses.

Meanwhile, Khamenei and Rouhani have shown that neither one has the ability or courage to stick to one specific path, regardless of whether it’s right or wrong. History, however, is not going to wait at such points, and will issue its verdict against a deadlocked dictatorship.